Economics Group. Special Commentary. October 10, All four schools have played football since the 1800s. - PDF Free Download

Economics Group. Special Commentary. October 10, All four schools have played football since the 1800s.

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1 Economics Group Special Commentary Washington s Two Largest Universities Head to Arizona This weekend the University of Washington travels to face the University of Arizona and Washington State heads south to take on Arizona State. The state of Washington s two premier programs have been quite solid the past few years this week marks the first time since 2015 that both have been unranked. Washington is 4-2, but dropped out of the rankings after losing to Stanford last weekend. Washington State is 3-2 after losing their last two games against UCLA and Utah. The defeat versus UCLA will live on in college football infamy. Washington State was up in the third quarter, but lost in a stunning UCLA comeback that saw 1,377 combined yards and a quarterback Washington State s Anthony Gordon who threw for nine touchdowns and still lost. Defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys resigned two weeks later. Washington State began play in 1894 and has accumulated over 550 victories and four conference titles in 1917, 1930, 1997 and The program has produced some notable signal-callers, including #1 overall NFL Draft pick Drew Bledsoe, #2 overall pick and infamous draft bust Ryan Leaf and current NFL starting quarterback Gardner Minshew II. Washington has the edge on program accolades, however, with over 730 victories since 1889, including 17 conference championships, seven Rose Bowls and two national titles. The Huskies hold the second longest win streak in FBS history, after Oklahoma, winning 40 straight from 1908 to They also hold the longest unbeaten streak, a record 64 games from (they tied four times in this stretch). Arizona State is #18, with a 4-1 record, with crucial wins against #18 Michigan State and #15 Cal. They have amassed over 600 victories and 17 conference titles since Currently coached by former NFL head coach Herm Edwards, the program produced seven-time NFL Pro Bowler Terrell Suggs and Pat Tillman, who was killed in combat after leaving the NFL to enlist in the U.S. Army following 9/11. Arizona is also 4-1 and sitting in first place in the Pac-12 South. They have over 600 victories and six conference titles since their first season in Figure 1 Figure 2 Mark Vitner, Senior Economist (704) Charlie Dougherty, Economist (704) Matthew Honnold, Economic Analyst (704) All four schools have played football since the 1800s. 1.5 AZ WA US Real GDP Growth Index, Q = AZ WA US Population Growth Index, 1990 = Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities This report is available on wellsfargo.com/economics and on Bloomberg WFRE.

2 Washington s economy has boomed. Washington and Arizona have both experienced rapid economic growth in recent years. Washington s first quarter real GDP growth of 4.7% year-over-year was the fourth highest among all the states, trailing only North Dakota, West Virginia and Texas, all in the energy patch. Arizona was not far behind, with real GDP growing 4.3%, the seventh highest rate. Seattle Leading Washington Forward Washington s economy has boomed for much of this cycle, but has endured some turbulence recently from the trade war. Exports to China, which include lots of commercial airliners, were equivalent to roughly 21% of state GDP in The BEA methodology likely overstates the exposure of states with large port complexes that export goods produced elsewhere, but the Port of Seattle nevertheless supports an array of logistics and distribution jobs across the state. Since the Great Recession, Washington s economy overall has been incredibly strong, expanding almost 4 on a real basis since Much of Washington s growth has been concentrated in Seattle, which is home to the University of Washington. The Seattle metro area is home to just over half of Washington s population and tends to account for the bulk of the state s growth. Home to corporate behemoths such as Microsoft, Amazon and Starbucks, as well as the largest production base for Boeing, Seattle s rapid growth has pushed into the central part of the state, as businesses and individuals seek less expensive and less congested locations. Seattle s growth has reverberated throughout many of the Pacific Northwest s mid-sized cities, including Spokane, Boise, Reno, Coeur d'alene and Missoula. The University of Washington has almost 50,000 students, and received over $1.3 billion in research funding in Since 1972, it has received more federal research funding than any other public university, with major achievements in physics, medicine and computer science to show for it. Close ties to Amazon, Boeing and Microsoft Bill Gates and Paul Allen spent some time working in the university s computer labs have certainly benefited the university and the greater Seattle business community. Husky Stadium overlooks Lake Washington, and many fans will sailgate on the water before or during the game. It is also one of the loudest stadiums in college football. Its open end zones and metal roofs trap sound, similar to the Seattle Seahawks stadium, and a reading of decibels was once recorded at a 1992 night game against Nebraska, which reportedly is the highest ever recorded at a college football game. Slightly more dubious is the claim that the Wave was invented at Husky Stadium, but it was certainly popularized there. Figure 3 Figure 4 Nonfarm Employment Year-over-Year Percent Change of 3-Month Moving Averages 1 Washington vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted Washington: 4. United States: 3.5% Eastern Washington has lagged Seattle. - - United States: 1.5% Washington: 2.7% Seattle, WA: 3.1% Spokane, WA: 2.5% - Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities Pullman, which is 300 miles east of Seattle, close to the border with Idaho and home to Washington State, is hoping to capture some of Seattle s mojo. Eastern Washington is mostly rural, with an economy built on agriculture, forestry, education and tourism. Economic growth in the region has tended to not be anywhere near as strong as in Seattle, but has been solid nonetheless. The University of Idaho is located just a few miles away across the border in Moscow, while Eastern 2

3 Washington University, a perennial Football Championship Division power, is located 70 miles north in Cheney, creating a sizeable cluster of higher education and research facilities that should stoke entrepreneurship and encourage businesses to locate in the area. Unlike the University of Washington, Washington State is a land grant university, originally intended to spur research and knowledge into agriculture and the mechanic arts. Today it offers a wide range of majors and the second public medical school in the state, which was intended to address the physician shortage in the rural, eastern portion of Washington. Arizona Heating Up Arizona s economy has expanded nearly 2 on a real basis since 2010, and employers have added 558,000 jobs, a pace well ahead of the nation. While job growth has been robust, Arizona had the third highest unemployment rate of any state in August, at 5.. The higher rate is not something to be concerned about. While pockets of persistent unemployment exist, the state s diverse economy is creating an abundance of job opportunities across nearly every skill set. The persistent strength in job growth is pulling in job-seekers from other states, effectively importing unemployment from other parts of the country. A community s unemployment rate rises when labor force growth is stronger than employment growth, and vice versa. Arizona is a case of the former employment growth is strong, but its labor force, bolstered by very strong in-migration, is growing even faster. A strong job market can therefore be so attractive to migrants that the subsequent swelling of the labor force puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. The opposite is true across much of the Midwest, which sends a large number of residents to Arizona each year, and the Northeast. Unemployment rates are very low in both regions, but that is due to anemic labor force growth rather than strong job growth. Vermont s unemployment rate in August was 2.1%, but payrolls rose only 0. over the year. Arizona s 5. unemployment rate, on the other hand, was accompanied by a 2.5% jump in payrolls. Much of Arizona s growth has been concentrated in the Phoenix area, which has seen very strong population growth, as job-seekers and retirees seeking a more favorable climate move to the Grand Canyon State. Arizona State is located just ten miles west of downtown Phoenix in Tempe, which is part of the massive Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA, whose 4.9 million residents comprise almost 7 of Arizona s population. Phoenix s economy has been one of the nation s strongest in recent years, benefitting from an inflow of businesses and residents from Southern California. Figure 5 Figure Nonfarm Employment Growth: Arizona vs. US Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA, NSA - United States: 1.5% - Arizona (CES): 2.7% Arizona (QCEW): 2.7% - Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities Dallas-Fort Worth, TX Phoenix, AZ Houston, TX Austin, TX Tampa, FL Atlanta, GA Charlotte, NC San Antonio, TX Denver, CO Orlando, FL Las Vegas, NV Nashville, TN Seattle, WA Raleigh, NC Portland, OR Jacksonville, FL Riverside, CA Sacramento, CA Oklahoma City, OK Columbus, OH Net Domestic Migration Cumulative Total, Arizona State is one of the largest schools in the country, with over 50,000 students in Tempe, 11,000 students in downtown Phoenix and more than 30,000 students online. The rapid build-out of the Phoenix campus spurred a dramatic revitalization of the metro area s downtown area, while Arizona job growth is very strong, but the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high. Arizona State is one of the largest schools in the country. 3

4 Tucson has a lot of high-tech industries. surging online enrollment pushed overall enrollment above 100,000. It is also one of the fastest growing universities mirroring the rapid growth of Phoenix and Tempe yet graduation and retention rates have actually improved as the school s size has swelled. University President Michael Crow has taken major strides since 2002 to change its reputation from a party school to one of top-tier research and innovation. Research funding has doubled in just the last 10 years, enrollment doubled between 2002 and 2018 and Arizona State was named the most innovative school in the nation by U.S. News and World Report the past four years in a row. Arizona s other major metro areas Tucson, Lake Havasu City, Prescott, Yuma, Flagstaff and Sierra Vista are much smaller than Phoenix. The University of Arizona is located in Tucson, the second largest MSA in the state, with just over one million residents. Tucson is about 115 miles southeast of Phoenix, and is part of the Arizona Sun Corridor, a megaregion projected to continue growing rapidly as the Sunbelt gains residents at the expense of the Snow Belt. Tucson s economy is centered around the state s flagship university, while the Davis-Monthan Air Force Base and Fort Huachuca in Sierra Vista have spurred the development of high-tech industries, including Raytheon, Texas Instruments, Bombardier, IBM and dozens of optics manufacturers and designers that have earned the area the nickname The Optics Valley. The University of Arizona was founded in 1885 as a land grant university unlike Arizona State and today has over 45,000 students. The intrastate rivalry, known as the Duel in the Desert, grew contentious in the 1950s as Arizona State College won its bid to become a full university, over the opposition of some at the University of Arizona. Today Arizona ranks 23 rd out of all public universities for research funding, benefitting from its close ties to NASA and astronomy research. Football Outlook Arizona State are favored by three over Washington State. The Sun Devils are coached by former NFL head coach Herm Edwards, famous for his postgame insistence that, You play to win the game! Washington State is coached by offensive guru Mike Leach, the innovator behind the prolific air raid offense. The Cougars should have no problem putting up points, but it will be up to new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch to slow down Arizona State. Washington are seven-point favorites over Arizona, and the Huskies are likely barking to get back into the top-25 following last week s disappointing loss to Stanford. Arizona is eager to maintain its lead in the Pac-12 South, before their schedule gets tougher, with the final three games of the season against #13 Oregon, #15 Utah and #18 Arizona State. The game will not kick off until 11 PM Eastern Time, meaning football fans who are so inclined can watch football uninterrupted for over 14 hours this Saturday. Figure 7 Figure 8 7% 5% Population Growth Year-over-Year Percent Change Phoenix: 2. California: 0. United States: 0. 7% 5% Tucson MSA Nonfarm Employment 3-Month Moving Averages QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: 2. Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: 2.5% Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: 3. 3% 3% % 1% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities - 4

5 Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group Jay H. Bryson, Ph.D. Acting Chief Economist (704) Mark Vitner Senior Economist (704) Sam Bullard Senior Economist (704) Nick Bennenbroek Macro Strategist (212) Tim Quinlan Senior Economist (704) Azhar Iqbal Econometrician (212) Sarah House Senior Economist (704) Charlie Dougherty Economist (704) Erik Nelson Macro Strategist (212) Michael Pugliese Economist (212) Brendan McKenna Macro Strategist (212) Shannon Seery Economic Analyst (704) Matthew Honnold Economic Analyst (704) Jen Licis Economic Analyst (704) Hop Mathews Economic Analyst (704) Coren Burton Administrative Assistant (704) Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this publication. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company 2019 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited ("WFSIL"). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of Section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ( the Act ), the content of this report has been approved by WFSIL, an authorized person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Directive 2014/65/EU ( MiFID2 ). The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE

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